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Daily Market Technicals FX Outlook Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011 EUR/USD – look for market to turn lower Today’s outlook: Weekly outlook: Daily EUR/USD Chart Comment: EUR/USD appears to be turning at 1.4442. This is encouraging for our negative bias as it is turning ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the last leg lower (at 1.4460) and ahead of cloud resistance (at 1.4406 today). We maintain that corrections are likely to be short lived and look for a slide
  Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011 FX Outlook Daily Market Technicals  1 Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011 Current Price: 1.4305 Daily EUR/USD Chart Today’s outlook: Weekly outlook: Comment: EUR/USD appears to be turning at 1.4442. This isencouraging for our negative bias as it is turning ahead of the 61.8%retracement of the last leg lower (at 1.4460) and ahead of cloudresistance (at 1.4406 today). We maintain that corrections are likely to beshort lived and look for a slide back to the support line at 1.4102.We are unable to rule out an extension into the 1.4500/1.4617 zone, butwe look for this to cap the market (6 week downtrend). Key resistanceremains 1.4732, the 78.6% retracement. Our outlook remains shorttomedium term negative below thereDirectly below the market we have the 200 week ma at 1.4014, the1.3968 recent low and the 200 day ma at 1.3848. A close below this zoneof support would be extremely negative and target the 1.3530/90 region(55 week ma and the 2010-2011 uptrend) as a minimum. Today’s trade: Short 1.4500, stops 1.4500. Cover 1.4015. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Risk shifted to downside, target 1.4010. Medium term (1-3 months): To remain below the 1.50/1.5145 region. Support 1.4200/1.41901.41301.4102*1.40481.4021* Reason Minor FiboMinor FiboSupport line16th May low28 th Mar low Resistance 1.44421.44601.4500*1.45201.4569 Reason Minor Fibo14 June highEarly April high61.8% Fibonacci  EUR/USD –look for market to turn lower Resistance line at1.4617Support line at1.4102  2 Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011 USD/CHF –Support .8350/27 holding Daily USD/CHF Chart Today’s outlook: Weekly outlook:   Current Price: 0.8424 Comment: USD/CHF has spiked down to .8340 and recovered, wecontinue to suspect it is trying to base. It has tough near termresistanceat .8547/54 (early May low and the 31 st of May high) and again at .8625,the channel –these must be overcome for a recovery to become viable.Below .8327 will trigger a slide to .8222/00. This is the location of TDsupport (Tom de Mark support) and point and figure target. Both implythat this is now the end stage of the downmove.We note the divergence of the daily RSI and this does depict a loss ofdownside momentum, but are unable to rule out one more stab on thedownside. Today’s trade: Long .8440, add on dips to .8340 and place stops below8325. Cover .8625. Shorter term (1-3 weeks): .8351 target has been reached, reversalexpected. Medium term (1-3 months): Target at .8400-.8351 has been met, lookfor signs of stabilisation, below here targets .8200/.8143. Support .8350**.8340.8327**.8222.8200 Reason 8Y channel lineRecent lowTD supportP&F taret Resistance .8457, .8554*.8638**.8708*.8852**.8895 Reason Early May lowDowntrend chan.55 dmaMarch low24 th Ma hih  Resistance lies at .8625  3 Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Thursday, 23 June 2011 GBP/USD –sell off has reached 200 day ma at 1.6029 Daily GBP/USD Chart Today’s outlook: Weekly outlook: Current Price: 1.6044 Comment: GBP/USD has started to erode to its ‘neckline support at1.6091, the 1.6056/54 support (the May low and Fibonacci support) andthe 200 day ma at 1.6029. Ideally we would like to see a CLOSE belowthis major support, to confirm another leg lower is underway anduntilthat is seen we would allow for an intraday rebound. Initial target is the1.5831 55 week moving average then 1.5510/00.Rallies will find interim resistance at 1.6260 and should remaincappedby the resistance line at 1.6392. Today’s trade: Short average 1.6170, add 1.6260, stops 1.6395. Cover1.5835 Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Market has failed at trend line, look for slideback to 1.6058/54. Medium term (1-3 months): Neutral to negative –looking for 1.7050 tohold the topside. Support 1.6046**1.6029*1.5937**1.5831**1.5891* Reason 50% retracement200 dmaMarch low55 week maFibo Resistance 1.6260/80**1.6353/701.6392*1.6546**1.6598* Reason Minor Fibo55 dma2 month RLMay high78.6% Fibo  200 day ma at 1.6029 Resistance line at1.6392
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